A Human Condition Institute Publication

Trends 2014 : Innovations That Matter

Our team of consultants and fellows selected the following innovations, people, and technologies that will shape our rapidly changing world in the coming years. Unlike most “best of” lists that focus on people or products, we developed a hybrid list of people, concepts and technologies that will change or completely disrupt industries.

Transportation – Driver Assisted Cars

Robot chauffeurs have arrived and they are quite good, but it will be a few years before we see them deployed globally

The idea of the driverless car is equally captivating, exciting and frightening at the same time. It takes us one step closer to a future where technology makes our lives safer and more convenient. We are now at the dawn of an exciting and somewhat frightening new age. There are many questions to ask, systems to understand, and social and behavioral issues to discuss.

2013 was a pivotal year for driverless vehicles as countless articles and conversations peaked in the late summer. The driverless car is closer than you might have originally thought, but it did not arrive overnight. Automation and driver aids have been added bit-by-bit into the car you drive today — cruise control, automatic parking sensors, mapping technologies, lane assist, proximity cameras, braking systems, traction control and impact detection for deploying air bags. The technology is now ready for a step towards integration of those existing technologies with new intelligence that will bring about a fully-developed driving system. The question is, are we?

2014 will bring increased integration of mobile devices and in-car apps that assist with heightened awareness of the driving environment. SmartMaps and augmented reality will continue to evolve and be incorporated into the dashboard, windshield displays and unified driver control systems. Tesla has already paved the way for the single panel touch enabled glass cockpit in the model S. Also look for increased fidelity and integration with voice-activated systems and more fully understood contextual commands.

As companies such as Google, Mercedes, and Volvo vie to have the first usable driverless vehicles to market, we need to take a holistic look at the ecosystem driverless cars and other vehicles on the road will inspire and create. Each country, state, and city will need to work through the vast and seemingly endless task of policy, regulation and enforcement as with any significant disruptive technology. 2013 was the year that policy makers understood they needed to get involved. As we move into 2014 and beyond, we’ll need to embrace policy and understanding of the entire ecosystem in order for mass adoption to take place.

Photo Credit: Audi 2013

Healthcare - Disruptive Low Cost Cancer Diagnosis

A 15-year-old invents a breakthrough diagnostic tool in high school

Jack Andraka created one of the most impressive breakthroughs in low-cost diagnosis of pancreatic, ovarian, and lung cancer after experiencing the loss of a family friend to pancreatic cancer.

His invention uses low-cost carbon nanotubes formed into simple sensor test strips that measure the change in resistance when a small current is passed through them. When the presence of a specific protein is detected through a drop of a patient’s blood, antibodies laced to the nanotubes expand and change the resistance of the sensor. The cost of this sensor? Three cents. His invention is 168 times faster, 400 times more sensitive and 26,667 less expensive than existing methods. Disruptive indeed.

The diagnostic method he developed is more than 90 percent accurate in detecting the presence of pancreatic cancer’s biomarker protein called mesothelin.

In 2012 he won Intel’s ISEF grand prize of $75,000. He actively competed against 1,500 other young scientists from 70 countries. He also won other prizes across different categories for a total award of $100,500, which he plans to use towards paying for college. He also formed his own company, has applied for both national and international patents, been featured by all forms of media, and is the subject of multiple documentaries.

We are watching his career path closely as it will obviously be a fascinating journey. When youth has such amazing success it brings to light not only the youth, but the power of science to bridge generations. How will he invent, innovate, and educate others? Will he continue to disrupt?

As we look forward into 2014 what are the other low-cost diagnostic tools that we will see come to fruition? Groups like Diagnostics For All are working on the nonprofit side and startups are developing products like Scanadu’s Scout, a crowdfunded a personal health scanner. They also have an at-home urine test in development.

Photo Credit: TED 2013

Tech – The Internet of Things & The Robot Cloud

 The best robot we ever make could be the last robot we ever make

Think of a simple Roomba vacuum that only has basic infrared and navigation skills. Now what if it could communicate with the cloud to gain geolocation and mapping capabilities? A simple vacuum robot can now be a cartographer developing a virtual floor plan of the home it is cleaning while doing it’s simple task of making sure every nook and dust bunny is accounted for. This floor plan could then be downloaded by the butler robot to ease its navigation. The floor plan could also be used by the connected security system or smart climate control system to steward home access and energy efficient climate control.

This may sound like sci-fi, but one of the most innovative developments in the space culminated this week with Google’s acquisition of advanced robotics company Boston Dynamics. Under the leadership of Andy Rubin, inventor of Android OS and now Google’s head of robotics, and Ray Kurzweil, Google’s Director of Engineering, and predictor of 2045 as the date of Technology Singularity. Rubin has been a robotics geek for years, his old site Android.com was taken down in 2008, yet it had a spectrum of cool robots and projects.

When you first see the Boston Dynamics robots there is an eerie feeling that you have see them in a movie. The influence of the last 30 years of sci-fi is inescapable. There is a menacing precision with the detached coldness of the Terminator. Thoughtful and responsible teams will need to work through the implications and policy of this new reality, to make sure we don’t end up in that scenario.

The RoboEarth Cloud project is the internet for robots. It pools the collective computer knowledge of each robot connected so that they can off-load complex computing to the cloud as well as learn new skills. With Google’s depth and breadth of technology and infrastructure, they are primed to develop the robot cloud at scale and make the intelligent connections between driverless cars, home automation, smart grids, media and data.

Photo: Andy Rubin & Robots

Tech – Wearables 2.0

Modern textiles coupled with mobile software open up huge markets for smart clothing

We have seen the proliferation of wearable 1.0 devices such as Fitbits, Fuelbands, Misfits, and Up. Each of these devices require the wearer to actively put on the device much like jewelry. Much like tying a string around your finger to remember something, the use of mnemonics can often lead to a user making better choices through the day. When you pick up a menu and you notice your Jawbone Up bracelet on your wrist you may be prompted to make a healthier menu selection. The simple gamification that exists now with goals and badges for steps walked or stairs climbed will be replaced with more motivating and social components to prompt competition as well as support.

Looking at what Wearables 2.0 will bring in 2014, we will see the devices blend seamlessly into your clothing through the use of smart textiles and increasingly low cost sensors. A smart undergarment can measure your respiratory rate, heart rate, perspiration, temperature and changes in body mass, it can also trigger an airbag to cushion a fall. Clothing that uniquely identifies you by your biometrics for security applications are endless.

Google has also just announced its glucose detecting contact lens for diabetics. The next few years are going to be very fun. Smart clothing sectors that are starting to evolve such as motorcycle jackets, personal floatation devices, firefighter turnout gear, construction safety clothing, shoes, gloves, and safety helmets.

From undergarments to shoes and outerwear, fashion designers working with creative technologists will embrace the possibilities and start leading the growth in the mass market.

The technologies that will push this market are low cost flexible batteries, kinetic charging systems, low energy communications, conductive, temperature and other property specific textiles.

As software developers have a better understanding what is possible with sensors and textiles they will generate new applications that bring better understanding to both consumers and healthcare professionals. Real value will be demonstrated over the next 2-3 years as we move past the hype and novelty into changing outcomes for health, sports, and industrial safety issues.

Photo Credit: SPIDI